In
1990, Nicaragua was shocked to find that the Frente Sandinistas de Liberacion
Nacional (FSLN), the Marxist-Leninist party that had been in power since their
triumph in the popular revolution of 1979, had lost in the first free and fair
Presidential election in that country’s history. The Sandinistas received 40% of the vote, while
the loose conglomeration of opposition forces precariously held together by Doña
Violeta Barrios de Chamorro, widow to a famous martyred journalist, got 54%.
In the following two decades, while remaining a powerful force in Nicaraguan politics, the Sandinistas failed to win a single presidential election. Daniel Ortega ran and lost three consecutive times. Support for the party seemed to hover, and remain stuck, around the 40% mark (in 1996 they got 38% of the vote; in 2001 it was 42%). People began to talk about an entrenched minority of diehard Sandinista supporters: “the 38%” they were called. Then in 2006, Ortega ran again, and again he got 38%, only this time he won! (The opposition vote was split in two and the runner-up party ended up with just 28% of the vote.)
At last, after more than 15 years, the Sandinistas were back in power. And since then (curiously or predictably, depending on how you see it), Sandinista support has appeared to skyrocket. In 2008, the party easily, and controversially, won a majority of the seats in the municipal elections, and in the 2011 presidential elections, Ortega cruised to victory with over 60% of the popular vote. The election monitors found certain irregularities in that last vote, but they did not question the overall results. A year later, Sandinistas now talk of polls that show 80% support countrywide.
Their public support is probably not at 80%, but there is, without question, a growing support for the current government. Where is this new support coming from and why? And what are the views of “the 38%”? Why are they so loyal to the Sandinistas?
In the following two decades, while remaining a powerful force in Nicaraguan politics, the Sandinistas failed to win a single presidential election. Daniel Ortega ran and lost three consecutive times. Support for the party seemed to hover, and remain stuck, around the 40% mark (in 1996 they got 38% of the vote; in 2001 it was 42%). People began to talk about an entrenched minority of diehard Sandinista supporters: “the 38%” they were called. Then in 2006, Ortega ran again, and again he got 38%, only this time he won! (The opposition vote was split in two and the runner-up party ended up with just 28% of the vote.)
At last, after more than 15 years, the Sandinistas were back in power. And since then (curiously or predictably, depending on how you see it), Sandinista support has appeared to skyrocket. In 2008, the party easily, and controversially, won a majority of the seats in the municipal elections, and in the 2011 presidential elections, Ortega cruised to victory with over 60% of the popular vote. The election monitors found certain irregularities in that last vote, but they did not question the overall results. A year later, Sandinistas now talk of polls that show 80% support countrywide.
Their public support is probably not at 80%, but there is, without question, a growing support for the current government. Where is this new support coming from and why? And what are the views of “the 38%”? Why are they so loyal to the Sandinistas?
